How a Climate Group Used Election Mapping and Candidate Insights to Shape a Bipartisan Investment Strategy
What We Did
We conducted a comprehensive analysis of all 435 U.S. House districts, using historical election outcomes, demographic trends, and voter behavior data. Each district was evaluated based on competitiveness, climate issue alignment, ideological volatility, and long-term viability for pro-climate organizing.
In parallel, we developed a candidate-level assessment framework. This included analysis of public messaging, donor patterns, legislative records, and organizational affiliations to evaluate a candidate’s likelihood of supporting serious climate action. We also conducted interviews with a small number of candidates to ground the analysis in real-world decision-making and language.
The findings were synthesized into a national strategy with state-level breakdowns and district-specific recommendations. We provided the client with a tiered list of candidates for immediate support, as well as a roadmap for where to build influence in future cycles.
Strategic Impact
This project gave the organization the ability to act with precision in an increasingly complex political landscape. By combining district-level analytics with candidate insight, they transformed abstract goals into a practical, long-term strategy for building power around climate issues.
The Client
A climate-focused special interest group aiming to increase the number of climate-aligned legislators in Congress. Their mission was not tied to one political party, but to advancing climate policy through strategic investments in viable candidates.
The Challenge
The group needed to develop a long-term, data-informed political strategy that moved beyond partisan loyalty. They wanted to understand where opportunities existed to support pro-climate candidates in both competitive and safe districts, and which areas had the demographic and ideological conditions to shift over time. Their goal was to prioritize investments for the current election cycle while also identifying future areas of opportunity.
The Outcome
The client gained a credible, bipartisan investment strategy rooted in actionable data. They were able to identify both high-impact races and longer-term coalition-building opportunities. The report helped guide not only candidate support decisions, but also media planning, grassroots engagement, and donor outreach.
It also changed how the organization talked about political alignment by focusing less on party affiliation and more on long-term policy alignment and ideological openness to climate solutions.
